Quote from Speech: " At this moment of significant transition for our country, the American business community is optimistic about the year ahead—optimistic…and also realistic about the hard work that will be required to make our optimism a reality.
We’re optimistic—because even in the eighth year of an aging recovery there are no visible signs of another recession. We expect the economy to continue to grow modestly in 2017. We’re optimistic—because the housing market is healthy, energy prices have stabilized, inflation is under control, stock markets are performing well, and consumer and business confidence have improved.
Most of all, business is optimistic because we see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to enact major reforms that could transform the American economy from a low-growth to a high-growth economy.
And that’s how we bring the jobs back … that’s how we revitalize hard-hit communities … and that's how we give every citizen the opportunity to pursue the American dream.
We do it with growth—sound, long-term economic growth.
There are also reasons for caution.
Good intentions are fine, but policymakers still must deliver the goods. That could take some time. New appointees must be confirmed and settle into their jobs. Bills must be passed and then they have to take effect—all before the economic benefits can be realized.
Uncertainty is always a factor in business. And there is plenty of uncertainty today—not just at home but abroad.
Many of our trading partners remain in a weakened economic condition.
The U.K. is trying to figure out its new relationship with Europe—and then we must figure out our new arrangement with the U.K. There are critical elections coming up in France and Germany. Will the conventional wisdom be as wrong in those places as it was with Brexit and our own election?
In a global economy, decisions made by leaders in China, India, Japan, Russia, the Middle East, and elsewhere can have a big impact on the prospects of American companies and American workers.
Cybersecurity continues to be a major challenge. The potential for disruption is huge. The Chamber will continue to devote significant resources this year to equip companies with the tools, advice, and policies they need to protect themselves and their customers.
There is also the constant threat of terrorist attacks and geopolitical crises. Any major event could upend agendas and alter economic forecasts overnight.
Add up the various upside and downside risks I have mentioned, and what do we see ahead for our economy?
The Chamber is forecasting modestly improved economic growth in the range of 2 to 2.5 percent in 2017. Inflation will remain subdued this year, perhaps just above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Therefore, we can expect two or even three additional interest rate hikes from the Fed over the course of the year.
This means that U.S. monetary policy will be at odds with some of our trading partners—and so the dollar is likely to be under significant upward pressure. A stronger dollar will benefit America’s consumers and importers and it may attract more capital here—but it will also make competing in global markets more difficult for our exporters.
That’s why it is important that the new administration does not add to the burdens facing our exporters—or to the millions of American workers whose jobs depend on exports—by erecting barriers to trade."---Read more
https://www.uschamber.com/speech/2017-state-american-business-address
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