US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: The High Cost of Fracking Protesters
Blog post by, SEAN HACKBARTH, Senior Editor, Digital Content
Posted 8/ 2/ 17 (source link)
Taking strong stands publicly on issues is part of the American Way and so cherished that free speech is embedded in our constitution.
Unfortunately, some “Keep it in the ground,” fracking opponents have moved from peaceful protests to violence, while others waste public funds on Quixotic escapades.
First in Iowa, where two opponents of the Dakota Access Pipeline stood before reporters’ cameras and confessed to damaging oil pipeline valves and committing arson:
Jessica Reznicek, 35, and Ruby Montoya, 27, both of Des Moines, held a news conference Monday outside the Iowa Utilities Board’s offices where they provided a detailed description of their deliberate efforts to stop the pipeline's completion. They were taken into custody by state troopers immediately afterward when they abruptly began using a crowbar and a hammer to damage a sign on state property.
The two women said they researched how to pierce the steel pipe used for the pipeline and in March they began using oxyacetylene cutting torches to damage exposed, empty pipeline valves. They said they started deliberately vandalizing the pipeline in southeast Iowa's Mahaska County, delaying completion for weeks.
Reznicek and Montoya said they subsequently used torches to cause damage up and down the pipeline throughout Iowa and into part of South Dakota, moving from valve to valve until running out of supplies.
The two women said they later returned to arson as a tactic, using tires and gasoline soaked rags to burn multiple valve sites and electric units, as well as heavy equipment located on pipeline easements throughout Iowa. They said they attempted again in May to pierce a valve in southeast Iowa's Wapello County with a cutting torch. But they were disappointed to learn oil was already in the pipe.
Ironically, the vandals wouldn’t have been able to employ their tools or get to the scenes of their crimes without the petroleum they oppose.
More importantly, they could have caused an oil spill, something they said they’re trying to stop. Oil pipeline are under high pressure, and tampering with them is extremely dangerous. “On the wrong pipeline, in the wrong place (actions like this) could kill people,” said pipeline expert Richard Kuprewicz in 2016 when a set of coordinated attacks took place on five pipelines in four states. These actions are reckless and put the safety and lives of people in the community, workers, and public safety officials needlessly at risk and in harms way.
Next, in North Dakota, taxpayers have to fork over $38 million to pay for police costs and the cleanup of the mess Dakota Access Pipeline protesters made along the Missouri River. (These people claim to be fighting for a clean planet.) Far from being peaceful, the protesters attacked security guards and launched Molotov cocktails at police.
Finally, in Youngstown, Ohio, instead of property damage there's been taxpayer waste. Since 2013, shale energy opponents have been waging a fruitless war to ban fracking at the ballot box, even though the shale boom revived manufacturing and created jobs in the city.
They’ve been losing at the ballot box, but local taxpayers are stuck footing the bill, Energy In Depth discovered:
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and documents from the City of Youngstown and Mahoning County Board of Elections confirm that the city has paid $19,219.55 advertising the six previous ballot measures. Each time the so-called Community Bill of Rights is placed on the ballot, the City of Youngstown pays approximately $6,000 in required advertising costs. The Mahoning County Board of elections has confirmed that $168,000 has also been paid by the City of Youngstown to print the ballots, additional advertising, ballot space, poll workers, and notes there are additional funds that have been paid to staff to count the votes.
Thousands of dollars more could be spent, since fracking opponents have collected signatures to put another referendum on the ballot.
Whether it is property damage, violence, or wasted taxpayer dollars, communities are paying a high price for fracking opponents’ protests.
US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: Trump's Historically Slow Confirmation Rate is Hurting America
By, NEIL BRADLEY, Senior Vice President and Chief Policy Officer
Blog posting dated 8/ 3/ 17 (source link)
There is an old saying in Washington that “personnel is policy.” But what happens to policy if there are no personnel?
Unfortunately, we are in the middle of finding out; and the answer is grim.
Every president nominates approximately 1,200 senior officials, who, after being confirmed by the Senate, manage and set policy in the various federal agencies and independent commissions.
Yet today, six months after President Trump took office, the majority of those positions still either sit vacant or are held by temporary officials in an acting capacity. As a result, agencies lack critical leadership and in the case of independent agencies, the quorum necessary to conduct important business.
This has real world impacts: Workers are sidelined as projects await permits and approvals from agencies that lack the quorum necessary to issue them. Businesses are left waiting for important administrative decisions that simply cannot be made in the absence of Senate-confirmed officials.
Why is this happening? While it is true that the White House got off to a slow start in identifying nominees and the process of conducting background checks on nominees is slowing down the process once nominees are identified, increasingly the hold-up is in the U.S. Senate.
Over 80 nominees have been approved by the committee of jurisdiction and now await consideration by the full Senate. Some nominees have been waiting over two months. Why? Because some in the Senate are forcing most nominees to go through a time-consuming process designed to slow down the overall confirmation process.
Specifically, rather than confirming non-controversial nominees by voice vote – as the Senate did in prior administrations – the Senate minority is forcing most confirmations to go through what is called the cloture process, a process that takes several days to complete per nominee.
Through August 2, of President Trump’s 283 executive and judicial nominations, only 67 have been confirmed. Of those 67, only 13 (19%) were confirmed by voice vote or unanimous consent, while 37 (55%) were confirmed only after going through the cloture process. By way of comparison, at the same point in President Obama’s first term, the Senate had confirmed 206 nominees, 182 (88%) by voice vote or unanimous consent. Only eight (4%) of President Obama’s nominees were forced to go through the cloture process.
Unfortunately, we are in the middle of finding out; and the answer is grim.
Every president nominates approximately 1,200 senior officials, who, after being confirmed by the Senate, manage and set policy in the various federal agencies and independent commissions.
Yet today, six months after President Trump took office, the majority of those positions still either sit vacant or are held by temporary officials in an acting capacity. As a result, agencies lack critical leadership and in the case of independent agencies, the quorum necessary to conduct important business.
This has real world impacts: Workers are sidelined as projects await permits and approvals from agencies that lack the quorum necessary to issue them. Businesses are left waiting for important administrative decisions that simply cannot be made in the absence of Senate-confirmed officials.
Why is this happening? While it is true that the White House got off to a slow start in identifying nominees and the process of conducting background checks on nominees is slowing down the process once nominees are identified, increasingly the hold-up is in the U.S. Senate.
Over 80 nominees have been approved by the committee of jurisdiction and now await consideration by the full Senate. Some nominees have been waiting over two months. Why? Because some in the Senate are forcing most nominees to go through a time-consuming process designed to slow down the overall confirmation process.
In a letter sent to Senate leaders, a number of business associations noted the impact this is having.
(See Business Letter to Senate: Stop Stalling on Trump Nominees)
IRS: Security Summit Alert: Tax Pros Warned of New Scam to Steal Their Passwords
PRESS RELEASE ISSUED 8/ 4/ 17
WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service, state tax agencies and the tax industry today warned tax professionals to be alert to a new phishing email scam impersonating tax software providers and attempting to steal usernames and passwords.
This sophisticated scam yet again displays cybercriminals’ tax savvy and underscores the need for tax professionals to take strong security measures to protect their clients and protect their business. This is the time of year when many software providers issue software upgrades and when tax professionals are working to meet the Oct. 15 deadline for extension filers.
These types of phishing scams are why the IRS, state tax agencies and the tax industry, acting as the Security Summit, launched the 10-week Don’t Take the Bait campaign currently underway. This awareness effort highlights the many tactics of cybercriminals as well as the steps tax professionals can take to protect their clients and themselves.
This latest scam email variation comes with a subject line of “Software Support Update” and highlights an “Important Software System Upgrade.” It thanks recipients for continuing to trust the software provider to serve their tax preparation needs and mimics the software providers’ email templates.
The e-mail informs the recipients that due to a recent software upgrade, the preparer must revalidate their login credentials. It provides a link to a fictitious website that mirrors the software provider’s actual login page.
Instead of upgrading software, the tax professionals are providing their information to cybercriminals who use the stolen credentials to access the preparers’ accounts and to steal client information.
The Security Summit reminds tax professionals that software providers do not embed links into emails asking them to validate passwords. Also, tax professionals and taxpayers should never open a link or an attachment from a suspicious email.
Tax professionals can review additional tips to protect clients and themselves at Protect Your Clients, Protect Yourself on IRS.gov.
Tax professionals who receive emails purportedly from their tax software providers seeking login credentials should send those scam emails to their tax software provider.
For Windows users, follow this process to help the investigation of these scam emails:
Use “Save As” to save the scam. Under “save as type” in the drop-down menu, select “plain text” and save to the desktop. Do not click on any links.
Open a new email and attach this saved email as a file.
Send a new email containing the attachment to the tax software provider, as well as a copy to Phishing@IRS.gov.
US DEPT. of LABOR: U.S. SECRETARY OF LABOR ACOSTA STATEMENT ON JULY JOBS REPORT
PRESS RELEASE ISSUED 8/ 4/ 17
WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta issued the following statement on the July 2017 Employment Situation report:
“July’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent from the previous month’s level of 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate matches its May 2017 rate, which is the lowest since May 2001. The unemployment rate has dropped 0.5 percentage point since President Trump took office. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 209,000 jobs. More than one million jobs have been created since January. Multiple economic sectors showed job growth since the President took office, including 82,000 jobs created in construction and 70,000 in manufacturing.
“Since President Trump took office, the unemployment rate has hit a 16-year low. This month’s jobs report reflects the steady economic growth and continued optimism felt by businesses across the United States. American companies are growing and they are hiring. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are now taking home a paycheck.
“By empowering business, education, and state and local government to work together on expanding apprenticeships and job opportunities, our labor force will continue to strengthen. This Administration is committed to ensuring good, safe, family-sustaining jobs for American workers will be available today and in the future.”
US TREASURY DEPT: Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association
PRESS RELEASE ISSUED 8/ 2/ 17
(Text of letter as posted on the US Treasury Dept.)
Letter to the Secretary
Dear Mr. Secretary:
Economic activity picked up in the second quarter after a sluggish first quarter. Real GDP rose 2.6% (annual rate) last quarter, led by healthy gains in personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment. Smoothing through the quarterly variability, real GDP has expanded 2.1% over the last four quarters. That pace represents a continuation of the relatively slow but steady growth that has characterized this expansion.
Since the Committee last met in May, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates again, outlined a plan for how it will shrink its super-sized balance sheet, and suggested it would begin the run-off “relatively soon,” which most market participants interpreted as the next FOMC meeting in September. In spite of these moves to provide less monetary policy accommodation, financial conditions eased on net. Equities rose on good news about earnings, the broad trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar fell as growth improved abroad, and long-term interest rates were little changed. Financial conditions are expected to remain accommodative in the near term, continuing to support domestic economic activity and provide a favorable backdrop for the ongoing economic expansion.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8% in the second quarter, somewhat stronger than in the first quarter. Spending on durable goods rose briskly despite sagging sales of motor vehicles. Nondurable spending also notched a solid gain while growth in services was steady. The most recent readings on the consumer have been mixed. Core retail sales (excluding autos, building supplies and gasoline stations) fell outright in June, which provides a weak handoff to the current quarter. However, industry reports suggested motor vehicle purchases edged back up in July. Looking ahead, the fundamental determinants of consumer spending appear sturdy. Consumer sentiment is elevated, household balance sheets have enjoyed rising home and equity prices, debt growth has been disciplined, and compensation growth has been moderate.
Business fixed investment moved up 5.2% in the second quarter, improving across the board in equipment, structures, and intellectual property. Real outlays on equipment accelerated to 8.2%, the largest increase since the third quarter of 2015. Real structures investment increased 4.9%, a move that was more than all accounted for by a surge in drilling activity in the energy sector. Real investment in intellectual property slowed because of a decline in the entertainment sector. Looking forward, national and regional surveys of purchasing managers point to ongoing momentum in manufacturing and investment. In addition, hard data on orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft have improved further in recent months, and remain above the corresponding shipments, which is positive for further growth in equipment investment. Inventory investment was nearly unchanged in the second quarter. The real level of -$0.3 billion means that there is plenty of room for sizable positive contributions to growth in the second half of the year as businesses restock.
Real residential investment declined 6.8% in the second quarter. Part of the decline may owe to payback from the large increase in the first quarter when unseasonably warm weather pulled forward activity. Despite the decline, fundamentals in the housing market look generally positive. The benchmark 30-year mortgage remains below 4%, credit is widely available, and the supply of new and existing homes is relatively lean.
Net exports added a little to second-quarter real GDP growth. With the broad trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar depreciating by 7% this year, the dollar is turning into a tailwind for growth. At the same time, the outlook for global growth has brightened. Developed market economies have displayed surprising strength, especially in the Euro area, and emerging market economic performance has been stable as worries have faded about downside risks to growth in China. As a consequence, we look for stronger US exports in the coming quarters
Government spending and investment rose a bit in the first quarter. Federal outlays increased a little more than state and local contracted. Plans for federal expenditures on health care and tax reform continue to be debated by Congress and the administration. Efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare have been unsuccessful so far. An outline for tax reform was agreed among key officials and the relevant committees in Congress will forge ahead on filling in the details in the fall.
Despite relatively slow growth, the labor market has continued to impress. The unemployment rate has fallen 0.3 percentage points in the first half of the year to 4.4%. Over the same period, nonfarm payroll employment has averaged a robust 180,000 new jobs per month. Despite what appears to be a tightening labor market, wage growth has been modest. Average hourly earnings have slowed to a 2.5% clip over the year ended in June. Over the same period, a broader measure of compensation in the employment cost index has been similarly muted. Part of the explanation for restrained wage growth may owe to historically weak productivity trends.
Consumer price inflation has disappointed over the past few months. Total personal consumption expenditures inflation ticked down to 1.6% in the year ended in the second quarter. Inflation excluding food and energy has been even weaker slipping to 1.5%, owing mostly to a string of idiosyncratic and transitory factors. Earlier in the year, a huge decline in the quality-adjusted prices for wireless phone services shaved .1 percentage points by itself from core inflation. More recently, volatile categories like airfares and lodging held back core inflation. However, some of the decline in core inflation looks more persistent, as owner’s equivalent rent (the largest share of expenditures after health care) has slowed as well. Meanwhile, survey-based measures of inflation expectations bounced back to the middle of the ranges seen in the last few years. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have generally followed the path of longer-term nominal interest rates, declining for most of the year until bouncing back in the last month or so.
At its June meeting, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate for a third consecutive quarter to a range of 1.0% to 1.25%. The Fed also indicated that it expects to continue raising interest rates gradually. The median of the Committee participants’ submissions of the appropriate path of policy called for three rate increases in each of 2018 and 2019 with a longer run neutral rate of 3%. The FOMC also announced in June detailed principles about how it plans to normalize its balance sheet. The Fed will decrease its reinvestments of principal payments on Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities subject to a series of caps. For Treasuries, the cap will be $6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $30 billion. For agency mortgages, the cap will be $4 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $4 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $20 billion per month. Although no decisions were made about the ultimate size of the balance sheet, the near-term path of the gradually declining balance sheet appears to be on autopilot. At their July meeting, the FOMC indicated that normalization would begin “relatively soon,” code words most market participants took to mean an announcement in September with commencement soon thereafter. Given the very deliberate approach the Fed has taken to withdrawing accommodation, it seems likely they will pause on raising interest rates when they start balance sheet normalization. In light of the surprising shortfall in inflation from the Fed’s 2% mandate, such a pause also enables the Committee to evaluate inflation trends before raising rates again. Most officials appear comfortable with returning to rate hikes in December,
Against this economic backdrop, the Committee reviewed Treasury’s August 2017 Quarterly Refunding Presentation to the TBAC. Fiscal year-to-date receipts are up 2%, due to stronger individual income and payroll taxes. Fiscal year-to-date Treasury outlays increased by 6%.
Based on the Quarterly Borrowing Estimate, Treasury’s Office of Fiscal Projections currently projects a net marketable borrowing need of $96 billion for the fourth quarter of FY 2017, with an end-of-September cash balance of $60 billion. For the first quarter of FY 2018, net marketable borrowing need is projected to be substantially higher at $501 billion, with a cash balance ramping up to $360 billion by the end of December.
The Committee reviewed the Treasury’s cash balance policy in light of prudent risk management goals as well as developments related to the debt limit impasse, including the Secretary’s recent letter to Congress saying it must act to increase the debt limit by 29 September. The Committee stressed the urgency and importance for Congress to raise the debt limit in a timely manner.
The TBAC charge was to discuss the implications for Treasury debt management from the Federal Reserve’s potential normalization of its SOMA portfolio. The wide-ranging charge covered three major topics: Expectations for balance sheet normalization, options for the resulting increase in Treasury issuance, and potential broader market implications.
The FOMC is expected to begin phasing out reinvestments starting in October. Assuming a steady state where reserve balances are $650 billion (which includes a buffer than may prove unnecessary), the balance sheet will reach normal levels in the first quarter of 2021. At that time, Treasury holdings will be $1.7 trillion, down from $2.5 trillion presently. After normalization, the Fed is assumed to reinvest all maturing Treasuries on a pro-rata basis across the Treasury curve. Maturing mortgage-backed securities are assumed to be reinvested in T-bills. The Fed’s holdings of Treasuries will grow by $100-200 billion per year in 2021 and thereafter. Over this period of normalization, the impact on 10-year term premium is estimated to be a relatively modest 40 basis points, but that will depend on the Treasury’s issuance strategy as well as empirical relationships that are highly uncertain given the unique nature of this policy.
In addition to the funding gap created by less reinvestment by the Fed, the amount of maturing debt that needs to be refinanced will rise in the coming years. Another important variable for judging Treasury’s funding needs is the path of future budget deficits, a topic about which there’s considerable uncertainty. If the median deficit forecast by the primary dealers is a good guide, Treasury’s borrowing needs are likely to be substantially higher over the coming years. In the baseline estimates, borrowing needs will increase from $525 billion in calendar year 2017 to $1,010 billion in calendar year 2020, effectively a doubling. Assuming a gradual ramping up in T-bill’s share of overall debt, offering amounts excluding T-bills will have to rise by $672 billion by calendar year 2020. Assuming a more favorable profile for the federal deficit—such as in the administration’s forecast—results in meaningfully lower offering amounts.
The presentation then turned to how Treasury should consider responding to increased funding needs. The highlight of the findings is that Treasury should consider increasing auction sizes across all tenors while gradually increasing T-bills as a share of overall debt. Under this proposal, the weighted average maturity (WAM) of the debt would gradually increase. Several other scenarios were presented. For example, were Treasury to concentrate increases at the front end of the Treasury curve with a large jump in the T-bill share to 22% of outstanding, coupons would increase only modestly.
The higher borrowing needs are primarily driven by the federal deficit, so Treasury should carefully consider fiscal policies as it makes decisions about various debt management scenarios. Nevertheless, if the median primary dealer forecast is a good guide, a prudent and flexible approach would consider increasing coupon debt as soon as the November refunding and as late as the first quarter of 2018. In particular, the presentation recommended that Treasury consider a broader increase in issuance across tenors.
The presentation concluded with a discussion of potential spillovers and risks from the normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet. The private sector piggy-backed on the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases, a move that promoted a surge in corporate borrowing and tighter risk spreads. In this environment, a tail risk stress scenario is that a small increase in yields could possibly lead to large changes in risk premiums. In an adverse scenario, there’s the possibility of a meaningful, but not systemically risky, decline in both credit and equities.
In the ensuing discussion among Committee members, there was unanimous agreement that the traditional way of responding to cyclical debt needs by relying primarily on short-end funding would be inappropriate. Given the potential magnitude of the funding gap going forward, the Committee strongly recommends that Treasury consider a broader increase in issuance across tenors.
Although the Committee did not make specific recommendations for how to increase coupon issuance, there was unanimous agreement that the WAM should remain about the same or increase going forward. It was stressed by many members that the WAM is just a metaphor for Treasury’s specific goals for least cost issuance and interest rate risk mitigation over time. In future charges, the Committee plans to carefully examine different debt management strategies within a model-based framework along with using WAM. The risk is that by using WAM as a single metric exclusively, the market mistakenly infers that a mechanical increase in longer-term coupons is optimal. It’s not.
In terms of the timing of increased coupon issuance, the Committee felt that Treasury should consider increasing coupon debt as soon as the November refunding and as late as Q1 2018. By legging into increased coupon issuance relatively soon and in a predictable manner, Treasury maintains flexibility to respond to fiscal and other developments without causing market stress.
WORLD & NATIONAL NEWS BRIEFS & Commentary
UN NEWS CENTER: On anniversary of Hiroshima atomic bombing, UN chief calls for intensified effort on nuclear disarmament6 August 2017 – With the presence of some 15,000 nuclear weapons on earth, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today urged all States to intensify their efforts in the shared pursuit of a nuclear-weapons-free world.
PJ MEDIA: 'The Russians Don't Particularly Like General McMaster,' Top House Intel Dem Says of Ouster Campaign
WASHINGTON -- Lawmakers said today that it would be within Moscow's known M.O. to orchestrate or join a campaign calling for the ouster of National Security Advisor Gen. H.R. McMaster.
PATRIOT POST: Trump Is Woody Allen Without the Humor
Half his tweets show utter weakness. They are plaintive, shrill little cries, usually just after dawn.
The president’s primary problem as a leader is not that he is impetuous, brash or naive. It’s not that he is inexperienced, crude, an outsider. It is that he is weak and sniveling. It is that he undermines himself almost daily by ignoring traditional norms and forms of American masculinity.
THE HILL: McCain lifts the Senate
When Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) returned to the Senate floor after being diagnosed with cancer he was greeted by fellow senators with a rousing ovation of admiration, respect and goodwill.
After casting the decisive vote in favor of proceeding to consider the Republican healthcare bill, and before casting the decisive vote against the GOP bill, McCain gave one of the most impassioned and important speeches in many years about the nature and future of the Senate.
MORE REACTION ABOUT THE SCOLDING FROM US ATTORNEY GENERAL OVER POT
Inslee statement on Attorney General Sessions’ letter regarding Washington’s marijuana legalization efforts
PRESS RELEASE ISSUED 8. 4. 17
Washington state has been a ground-breaking leader when it comes to implementing a whole new marketplace for recreational marijuana. I am incredibly proud of the work we’ve done to implement legalization in a way that keeps youth safe, minimizes diversion into the black market, and minimizes diversion of product out of state.
"We are learning important lessons as we go and continually looking for ways to improve our work on all fronts. It is important for our state to know the Trump Administration is willing to work with us to ensure our success on these efforts, rather than undermining our efforts and diminishing our ability to work constructively with growers and distributors.
“While Washington has been successful in creating a tightly regulated market place and generating needed revenue for the state, challenges do remain. Most importantly marijuana remains a Schedule 1 controlled substance by the federal government. This determination affects all aspects of our state systems, from banking to research to consumer safety.
“It is clear that our goals regarding health and safety are in step with the goals Attorney General Sessions has articulated. Unfortunately he is referring to incomplete and unreliable data that does not provide the most accurate snapshot of our efforts since the marketplace opened in 2014. Our team is currently reviewing his letter, and we will have a more detailed response in the coming days. I look forward to speaking with Attorney General Sessions to make sure he fully understands everything our state is doing to accomplish our shared goals.”
Daily Bible Verse: The entirety of Your word is truth, And every one of Your righteous judgments endures forever.
Psalm 119:160 NKJV
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